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Pages: (3) [1] 2 3  ( Go to first unread post ) Reply to this topicStart new topicStart Poll

> Bush Stifling Evidence Of Global Warming, NASA Scientist - James E. Hansen


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Posted: Oct 30 2004, 01:44 AM
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Bush Stifling Evidence Of Global Warming - NASA Scientist
10-30-4

IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) - The Bush administration is trying to stifle scientific evidence of the dangers of global warming in an effort to keep the public uninformed, a NASA scientist said Tuesday night.
 
"In my more than three decades in government, I have never seen anything approaching the degree to which information flow from scientists to the public has been screened and controlled as it is now," James E. Hansen told a University of Iowa audience.
 
Hansen is director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and has twice briefed a task force headed by Vice President Dick Cheney on global warming.
 
Hansen said the administration wants to hear only scientific results that "fit predetermined, inflexible positions." Evidence that would raise concerns about the dangers of climate change is often dismissed as not being of sufficient interest to the public.
 
"This, I believe, is a recipe for environmental disaster."
 
Hansen said the scientific community generally agrees that temperatures on Earth are rising because of the greenhouse effect - emissions of carbon dioxide and other materials into the atmosphere that trap heat.
 
These rising temperatures, scientists believe, could cause sea levels to rise and trigger severe environmental consequences, he said.
 
Hansen said such warnings are consistently suppressed, while studies that cast doubt on such interpretations receive favorable treatment from the administration.
 
He also said reports that outline potential dangers of global warming are edited to make the problem appear less serious. "This process is in direct opposition to the most fundamental precepts of science," he said.
 
White House science adviser John H. Marburger III has denied charges that the administration refuses to accept the reality of climate change, noting that President Bush pointed out in a 2001 speech that greenhouse gases have increased substantially in the past 200 years.
 
Last December, the administration said it was planning a five-year program to research global warming and climate change.
 
Hansen said he was speaking as a private citizen, not as a government employee, and paid his own way for the Iowa appearance. He described himself as moderately conservative, but said he will vote for John Kerry in the presidential election.
 
"He certainly is not in denial of the existence of climate change problems," Hansen said.
 
Copyright © 2004 Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved.
 
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._sc/sci_bush_gw




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Posted: Nov 2 2004, 08:32 AM
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Maybe Kerry will do a better job if he wins?!


Kerry Wins Fans Abroad with Global Warming Plan
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._environment_dc
QUOTE
OSLO (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry (news - web sites) has won plaudits abroad for his promises to fight global warming but could find his hands tied at home if he wins next week's U.S. elections.

An ideological chasm separates the environmental policies of the two candidates, with President Bush (news - web sites) favoring more use of domestic coal and oil to cut dependence on Middle East oil while Kerry seeks a shift to clean energy like solar or wind power by 2020.

On global warming, Kerry wins fans abroad by pledging to rejoin international efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases by the United States, the world's top polluter, even though he rules out signing up for the U.N.'s Kyoto protocol.

Bush angered U.S. allies by abandoning Kyoto in 2001.

But U.S. lawmakers, fearful of extra costs when oil is at $50 a barrel, might well constrain Kerry if he wins on Nov. 2 as they did ex-President Bill Clinton (news - web sites), whose administration signed up for Kyoto in 1997 but never got it ratified.

"The problem is not Bush or Kerry, the problem is the Senate," said Dutch State Secretary for the Environment Pieter van Geel, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (news - web sites). "We still have almost the same Senate."

"On global warming and other global issues I don't see much difference between Kerry and Bush," added Sunita Narain, director of the Center for Science and Environment in New Delhi. "There'll be a nuance change."



I don't know, but I have this feeling that this global warming and climate changes are based mostly on periodical changes...


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Posted: Jan 28 2005, 11:46 AM
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**********************************
Environmental Defense
take action for the environment online
**********************************
Dear Mark,
*Bush's Second Term: Second Chance on Global Warming*

January 20th marks the start of President Bush's second term.

Since he first took office in 2001, the impacts of global warming worldwide have continued to grow, and the list is getting longer. Global warming is the #1 environmental problem we face. As President Bush begins his second term and Congress gets back to work, send them an email supporting solutions, like the Climate Stewardship Act, and tell them now is the time for action on global warming.

Take action:
http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/jan20th/i5kegw20jmmttj

Spread the word:
http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/jan20th/.../i5kegw20jmmttj

Take action by February 17, 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Warming Impacts Since 2001:

- 2004 was the 4th warmest year on record. The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1990!

- Record heat waves battered Europe in the summer of 2003 - the
hottest on that continent in 500 years - and more than 26,000 people died from heat-related causes. Studies have found that global warming doubles the risk of events like the 2003 heat wave.

- A piece of the Larsen B Ice Shelf the size of Rhode Island broke off from Antarctica in 2002; rapidly warming temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula were to blame.
--------------------------------------------------------

RESPOND VIA THE WEB:
http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/jan20th/i5kegw20jmmttj


Also, why didn't America sign the Kyoto Protocols to reduce carbon gas emissions?

HMMMMMM




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"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
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Posted: Jan 28 2005, 03:49 PM
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Alarm At New Climate Warning
By Richard Black
BBC Environment Correspondent
1-26-5

Global temperatures could rise by as much as eleven degrees Celsius, according to one of the largest climate prediction projects ever run.
 
This figure is twice the level that previous studies have suggested.
 
The scientists behind the project, called climateprediction.net, say it shows there's no such thing as a safe level of carbon dioxide.
 
The results of the study, which used PCs around the world to produce data, are published in the journal Nature.
 
Climateprediction.net is run from Oxford University, and is a distributed computing project; rather than using a supercomputer to run climate models, people can download software to their own PCs, which run the programs during downtime.
 
More than 95,000 people have registered, from more than 150 countries; their PCs have between them run more than 60,000 simulations of future climate.
 
Each PC runs a slightly different computer simulation examining what happens to the global climate if levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere double from pre-industrial levels - which may happen by the middle of the century.
 
What vary most between the simulations are the precise nature of physical processes like the extent of convection within tropical clouds - a process which drives the transport of heat around the world.
 
Lowest rise
 
So no two simulations will produce exactly the same results; overall, the project produces a picture of the possible range of outcomes given the present state of scientific knowledge.
 
The lowest rise which climateprediction.net finds possible is two degrees Celsius, ranging up to 11 degrees.
 
The timescale would depend on how quickly the doubling of CO2 was reached, but large rises would be on a scale of a century at least from now.
 
"I think these results suggest that our need to do something about climate change is perhaps even more urgent," the climateprediction.net chief scientist David Stainforth told BBC News.
 
"However, with our current state of knowledge, we can't yet define a safe level in the atmosphere."
 
On Monday, the International Climate Change Taskforce, co-chaired by the British MP Stephen Byers, claimed it had shown that a carbon dioxide concentration of over 400 ppm (parts per million) would be 'dangerous'.
 
The current concentration is around 378 ppm, rising at roughly 2ppm per year.
 
Dangerous warming
 
Next week the UK Meteorological Office hosts an international conference, Stabilisation 2005, announced by Tony Blair late last year.
 
Its aim is to discuss what the term "dangerous" global warming really means, and to look at ways to stabilise greenhouse gas levels.
 
Myles Allen, the principal investigator of climateprediction.net, said the focus on stabilisation might not be appropriate.
 
"Stabilisation as an exclusive target may not be adequate," he told BBC News.
 
"Stephen Byers claims to know that 400 ppm is the maximum 'safe' level; what we show is that it may be impossible to pin down a safe level, and therefore we should not focus exclusively on stabilisation."
 
Distributed computing has been used before, notably by the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence or Seti, where several million people have downloaded software enabling them to analyse data from observations of distant galaxies for signs of alien life.
 
The scientists behind climateprediction.net believe their project, because it is distributed to individual PCs, can help inform people about climate change - and that, in turn could bring political change.
 
"It's very difficult to get politicians to collaborate, not only across the globe but also over sustained lengths of time," Bob Spicer from the Earth Sciences Department at the Open University, told BBC News.
 
"The people who can hold politicians to account are the public; and with this project we are bringing cutting-edge science to the stakeholders, the public."
 
 
© BBC MMV
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4210629.stm






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Posted: Feb 2 2005, 11:01 AM
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When you bumped this thread Pupp - I remember seeing this article some weeks ago:


17.jan
Americans are trying to discredit me, claims Chief Scientist
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environme...sp?story=601497
QUOTE
The Government’s chief scientific adviser is being aggressively targeted by American lobbyists trying to discredit his view that man-made pollution is behind global warming. In an interview with The Independent, Sir David King said he was being followed around the world by people in the pay of vested-interest groups that want to cast doubt on the science of climate changemoneyflip.gif  Last year, Sir David said the threat from global warming was greater than that posed by international terrorism and he has criticised the Bush administration for pulling out of the Kyoto treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Since then, he has given many lectures to international audiences but found individuals among them who are there solely to create the impression that he is presenting biased information. “They’ll be in the audience to stand up and raise questions to get into the audience’s mind that I haven’t represented a balanced view,” he said. “You have a group of lobbyists, some of whom are chasing me around the planet, which I’m chuffed about because it means they are worrying about what I’m saying, and these lobbyists stand up after I’ve given an hour’s talk and say, ‘There are scientists who disagree with you’,” Sir David said. “I always say, ‘Which bit of the science that I’ve just presented to you are you challenging’? I don’t get the answer.” Last November, Myron Ebell, from a right-wing Washington think-tank called the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on BBC Radio 4 that Sir David is an “alarmist with ridiculous views who knows nothing about climate change”.




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Posted: Feb 2 2005, 07:18 PM
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Well. he can't stifle it now, because scientists worldwide are talking directly to the press, and they are worried.


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Posted: Feb 2 2005, 09:08 PM
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Blue Eyed, I tried to access the link you provided, but you have to pay. Could you post the entire article? I like to print ones that I think are important.



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Posted: Feb 3 2005, 06:28 AM
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Discrediting individuals also happens in Forums. Presenting truthful information with citations and references sometimes gives a person the reputation of being a "bad ass" and it attracts personal attacks, which nobody refutes or challenges.

Amazing, how passive post people are.





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Posted: Feb 3 2005, 01:51 PM
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Hei Zookeeper, this is the whole article... smileNew4.gif I always save interesting articles in a Word-doc just in case they expire or something!


This guy's opinions are very disputed and I remember from january 2004 when he went to Blair and told him about an impending disaster that the world needed to know about. Tony Blair asked him to stay quiet.

He then went to US and told them that "In my view, climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism." Tony Blair then "gagged" him...


Related articles from that:

Climate change is a far greater threat to the world than international terrorism, the UK Government's chief scientific adviser has said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3381425.stm

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/st...1153530,00.html

Scientist 'gagged' by No 10 after warning of global warming threat
http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?f...limate%20Change


IMO - he's a bit of a fear-monger but he also does a great effort to wake people from their slumbering...


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Posted: Feb 3 2005, 03:40 PM
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Climate Warming Spells Species Wipeout - Experts
By Jeremy Lovell
2-3-5

EXETER, England (Reuters) - Whole species of animals from frogs to leopards, living in vulnerable areas and with nowhere else to go, face extinction due to global warming, scientists said on Wednesday.
 
And the faster the temperature rises the worse it gets.
 
Steve Schneider from Stanford University, California, said there was clear proof that species were reacting to the 0.7 degrees centigrade warming of the atmosphere that had already taken place over the past century.
 
"This is a harbinger -- nature is already responding," he told reporters at a meeting on climate change. "There is a direct threat to the viability of many species on the planet."
 
The complication with rapid change was not only the need to speed up the rate of adaptation, mostly through moving territory, but that at the margins, like at the poles or high up in mountains, there was nowhere to go and human settlements may lie in the way.
 
"The only way rapid climate change can affect species is through extinctions," Schneider said.
 
Bill Hare from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said that as the climate changed, fragile ecosystems would collapse, taking with them their inhabitants.
 
Rachel Warren from the Tyndall Center for Climate Change told the meeting that even a one degree temperature rise put butterflies and birds like the Australian Golden Bowerbird under pressure.
 
At two degrees the pressure spread to fish, frogs, geese, snow leopards, seals and polar bears among other species.
 
Much beyond that, the species wipeout became wholesale.
 
Scientists say climate warming is caused by so-called greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and most accept that much of this is from human activities like car exhausts or electricity generation and urgently needs to be curbed.
 
Almost alone in the developed world, the United States disputes the human element to climate change.
 
The UN International Panel on Climate Change predicted in 2001 that the world could warm up by between 1.5 and nearly six degrees by the end of the century -- with clear proof that people were to blame for most of the rise.
 
On Tuesday, IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri said new evidence suggested that the upper limit range might have to be raised.
 
Scientists have predicted that above two degrees the warming will push the planet into the unknown as ice caps melt, sea levels rise and weather patterns change at accelerating rates.
 
But Schneider said even at the lower level there could be serious adverse impacts.
 
"There is a five to 10 percent chance we will have dangerous outcomes just from what is already in the pipeline," he said.
 
Copyright © 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
 
http://story.news.yahoo.com/es_dc 

http://rense.com/general62/whole.htm




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"Ye shall know them by their fruits"
~ Matthew 7:16

"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
~ Buddha
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Posted: Feb 5 2005, 01:40 AM
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Global warming could hit Africans hardest
Wed, 02 Feb 2005
CBC News

EXETER - Global warming could hit millions of Africans hardest, an international conference on climate change heard Wednesday.

Nigerian scientist Tony Nyong said agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa could drop by up to a third within 60 years because of changes in rainfall patterns and longer dry seasons, while warmer water could all but wipe out coastal fisheries.

"All the present studies indicate that Africa will be worst affected," Nyong , an environmental scientist at Nigeria's University of Jos and member of the UN's top panel on climate change, told Agence France Presse.

Temperatures could rise by two degrees and rainfall drop by 10 per cent by 2050 if trends continue, scientists warned on the second day of the scientific forum on climate change.

The resulting droughts and poor harvests could threaten as many as 100 million Africans with starvation, Nyong warned.

One study suggests that as many as 5.2 million people in South Africa alone could get malaria as mosquitoes migrate to previously dry areas.

"What makes Africa vulnerable is not just climate change but also poverty, AIDS and subsistence dependence on the ecosystem," he said.

"All of these add to the challenge of adapting to climate change."

http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/national/2...ing-050202.html




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"Ye shall know them by their fruits"
~ Matthew 7:16

"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
~ Buddha
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Posted: Feb 5 2005, 02:04 AM
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Crops face extinction in global warming
By Stephanie Peatling
February 4, 2005

Australia faces an ever-shrinking water supply, the extinction of plant and animal species and the loss of billions of dollars from a less productive agriculture sector, says a submission to an international global warming conference.

A joint presentation by the Australian Greenhouse Office, the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO said the 2002-03 drought cost Australia 1.6 per cent of its gross domestic product - about $10 billion - and about 70,000 jobs.

The agriculture industry already had to adapt to extreme climate variations, the submission to the British conference said, and "that situation would get worse with a drier climate and more droughts".

As well as coping with a harsher climate, water supplies would be stretched because of growing demands by farms and cities. Water is also needed to protect species, the submission said.

"Higher temperatures in the future and possible rainfall decreases are likely to increase water demand and reduce supply, further increasing the pressure on this key resource," the Australian presentation said.

"Increases in the intensity of daily rainfall are likely to place increased pressure on urban drainage capacity and catchment management."

The submission was carefully worded to discuss only the predicted effects of global warming on Australia. It avoided any mention of what, if any, action should be taken to address climate change.

It noted the Great Barrier Reef "may be significantly affected by climate change under even moderate emission scenarios" and that the rate of extinction could increase.

At this week's conference in Exeter, scientists from 30 countries are trying to establish what constitutes dangerous levels of warming. But they will stop short of making policy recommendations.

The Australian submission did not discuss what temperature range it believed could be coped with, but supported the need to determine the point at which species and ecosystems can no longer adapt to a changing climate.

The Exeter conference is being held less than a fortnight before the Kyoto Protocol on global warming comes into force. [...]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2005/02/03/1107409988362.html




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"Ye shall know them by their fruits"
~ Matthew 7:16

"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
~ Buddha
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Posted: Feb 5 2005, 02:07 AM
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Refugees, disease, water and food shortages to result from global warming 
02 February 2005
AFP

EXETER, England : Global warming will boost outbreaks of infectious disease, worsen shortages of water and food in vulnerable countries and create an army of climate refugees fleeing uninhabitable regions, a conference here was told.

The scale of these impacts -- the theme of the second day of the major scientific forum on global warming -- varies according to how quickly fossil fuel pollution is tackled, how fast the world's population grows and how well countries can adapt to climate shift.

But a common expectation is that widespread misery is lurking, a few decades down the road.

According to a study quoted by Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's top scientific authority on climate change, by 2050 as many as 150 million "environmental refugees" may have fled coastlines vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms or floods, or agricultural land that became too arid to cultivate.

In India alone, there could be 30 million people displaced by persistent flooding, while a sixth of Bangladesh could be permanently lost to sea level rise and land subsidence, according to the study.

Pachauri's body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), estimated in 2001 that by 2100, temperatures would rise by between 1.4 C (2.5 F) and 5.8 C (10.4) compared to 1990 levels, driven by atmospheric carbon pollution which stokes up heat from the Sun.

The mean global sea level would rise by between nine and 88 centimetres (four and 35 inches).

Those increases depend on whether carbon dioxide (CO2), doubles or nearly quadruples from the pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million (ppm).

Global warming will also add significantly to Earth's worrisome water problems.

Already around 1.4 billion people live in water-stressed areas, a term defined as having less than 1,000 cubic metres (35,000 cubic feet) of water per person per year, said Nigel Arnell of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at Britain's University of Southampton.

Most of them live in southern and southwest Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

By the 2050s, water availability in these water-stressed regions -- but also in parts of central, north and south America -- may be further crimped because of changed rainfall patterns.

Between 700 million and 2.8 billion people in such areas will be affected, depending on population growth and the pace of temperature rise.

Sari Kovats of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put forward a study co-authored by four World Health Organisation (WHO) scientists that gives a snapshot of global health problems caused by climate change.

Between the 1970s -- when temperatures first rose significantly -- and the year 2000, climate change cost around 150,000 lives from malnutrition, diarrhoea, malaria and floods.

That tally will "approximately double" by 2020, mainly because of diarrhoea, which is propagated easily in floods, and hunger, Kovats said.

The basis for this calculation is "business as usual," in other words, no controls are put on carbon pollution, causing Earth's temperature to reach some four C (7.2 F) higher at the end of this century when compared with 1990.

"Climate change will bring some health benefits," but these will mainly go to northern countries, where fewer people will die of cold and crop yields will be better, his study said.

Overall, these benefits will be hugely outweighed by increased disease and malnutrition.

Bill Hare, a former Greenpeace campaigner who is visiting scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in eastern Germany, said a two C (3.6 F) rise seemed to be a key threshold.

"Above two C, the risks increase very substantially, involving potentially large extinctions or even ecosystem collapses, major increases in hunger and water shortage risks as well as socio-economic damages, particularly in developing countries," said Hare.

The conference wraps up on Thursday with a set of conclusions about the current state of knowledge about the dangers of global warming. The document will be submitted to Group of Eight (G8) policymakers and the IPCC for consideration in its next big report, due out in 2007.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp.../130481/1/.html





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QUOTE
"Ye shall know them by their fruits"
~ Matthew 7:16

"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
~ Buddha
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Posted: Feb 5 2005, 02:11 AM
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I see the global brotherhood elite (bloodlines) embracing the catastrophic events that will come and are seeking to encourage them by DOING NOTHING to prevent it while their bretheren in China, India and other nations will continue to burn coal and fossil fuels and frolic down this path of self destruction!

So very sad!
sadoriginal.gif




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QUOTE
"Ye shall know them by their fruits"
~ Matthew 7:16

"Believe nothing. No matter where you read it, or who said it, even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."
~ Buddha
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Posted: Feb 12 2005, 02:01 PM
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Uncertain world Kyoto protocol heats global warming debate 
CNN
Friday, February 11, 2005

OSLO, Norway (Reuters) -- When bears wake early from hibernation, Australia suffers its worst drought in 100 years and multiple hurricanes hammer Florida should we believe the end is near?

That's the nub of a debate over the human impact on global warming that pits scientists who say such anomalies are signs of impending doom against those who say they are evidence that the earth's climate has always been chaotic.

Amid those signs of warming, for instance, Algeria had its worst snow in 50 years last month.

This month 141 countries will attempt the best effort to arrest a forecasted continued rise of global temperatures by bringing into force the Kyoto protocol. The treaty is an agreement aimed at curbing emissions of gases from cars and industry, blamed for trapping the earth's heat.

"Dealing with (global warming) will not be easy. Ignoring it will be worse," the United Nations says.

At issue is how humanity should deal with global warming, the risks of which are not yet fully understood despite broad consensus among scientists that people are heating the planet with the emission of such heat-trapping gases as carbon dioxide.

Not everyone is convinced of Kyoto's importance. U.S. President George W. Bush pulled the United States out of Kyoto in 2001, reckoning it will be too costly and that it wrongly excludes developing countries from cuts in emissions until 2012.

Bush accepts there are risks from climate change but says more research is needed -- exasperating even allies who say that the time for Kyoto-style caps on emissions is now.

"We're talking about spending perhaps $150 billion a year on Kyoto with fairly little benefit," said Bjorn Lomborg, Danish author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist."

Lomborg said that money would be better spent on combating AIDS and malaria, malnutrition and promoting fair global trade.
Biggest threat?

Many climate scientists say that floods, storms and droughts will become more frequent and that climate change is the most severe long-term threat to the planet's life support systems.

Rising temperatures could force up ocean levels, swamping coasts and low-lying Pacific islands and drive thousands of species to extinction by 2100.

But full proof is elusive.

A Caribbean hurricane season last year, when Florida was the first U.S. state to be hit by four hurricanes in one season since 1886, might be a fluke. Bears are waking in Estonia in the warmest winter in two centuries, again a possible climate freak.

"Imagine a pot of boiling water on the stove. If I turn up the heat I can't say that each bubble is from the extra heat," said Mike MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programs at the Climate Institute, a Washington think-tank.

"But there are more bubbles and they're larger," he said, adding it was best to act now rather than risk disaster.

The warmest year at the world's surface since records began in the 1860s was 1998, followed by 2002, 2003 and 2004, according to the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization.

World surface temperatures have risen by 0.6 degrees centigrade (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s when the Industrial Revolution started in Europe.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 2,000 scientists which advises the United Nations, projects a further rise of 1.4-5.8 degrees centigrade by 2100. Even the lowest forecast would be the biggest century-long rise in 10,000 years.
Beyond doubt?

Yet the evidence for a human impact on the climate falls short of being "beyond a reasonable doubt," the standard of proof needed in a criminal court.

"It is really for a legal mind to decide whether the scientific consensus of the IPCC provides findings that are beyond reasonable doubt," said IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri.

Many so-called skeptics concede that carbon dioxide stokes global warming but say U.N. models of what will happen in 2100 are about as reliable as tomorrow's weather forecast.

Other factors, like variations in the sun's radiation, ash from volcanoes or other natural effects may have a bigger role, they say. The IPCC tries to account for all such effects.

"My bottom line is that natural variations are much larger than the human component," said George Taylor, state climatologist for Oregon state.

Backers of Kyoto say it is a blueprint for regulating the climate by cutting rich nations' emissions of carbon dioxide by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12. Supporters say that much deeper cuts will be needed after 2012.

In a landmark phrase in 1995, the IPCC said that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence on the global climate. And its 2001 report spoke of "new and stronger" evidence that humans had caused warming in the past 50 years.

Pachauri said that he hoped the next report, in 2007, would fill in gaps in knowledge. But Washington has given no signs of being won over to Kyoto, preferring to focus on funding new clean technologies like hydrogen.

The Environmental Protection Agency says:

"The fundamental scientific uncertainties are these: How much more warming will occur? How fast will this warming occur? And what are the potential adverse and beneficial effects? These uncertainties will be with us for some time, perhaps decades."

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/0...reut/index.html




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